Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible benefits. These doubts are rarely shared by policy-makers and the population, who are typically...

This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85 countries; we focus on international linkages that may have allowed the crisis to spread across...

Conventional wisdom holds that protectionism is counter-cyclic; tariffs, quotas and the like grow during recessions. While that may have been a valid description of the data before the Second World War, it is no longer accurate. In the post-war era, protectionism has not actually moved...

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other...

Quantifications of gains from trade in heterogeneous firm models assume that productivity is Pareto distributed. Replacing this assumption with log-normal heterogeneity retains some useful Pareto features, while providing a substantially better fit to sales distributions—especially in the left...

In this paper, we study the impact of transnational terrorism diffusion on security and trade. We set up a simple theoretical model predicting that the closer a country is to a source of terrorism, the higher the negative spillovers on its trade. The idea is that security measures, which impede...

This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent and increases with the severity of the conflict. We then test the presence of two effects that trade can have on the...

The paper studies attitudes toward immigration and trade using an opinion survey of two thousand French individuals. We find that, beyond usual Stolper-Samuelson effects (skilled individuals are more pro-free trade than others, as in other countries) attitudes toward trade and immigration are...

The paper surveys the interactions between aid and trade, distinguishing between policies and outcomes as well as between various instruments. It first discusses the theoretical literature, focusing on the causal impact of aid on the recipient’s welfare via the trade channel, before turning to...

This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between trade and war. We show that the intuition that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is beneficial to all, war reduces trade and leaders take into account the costs of war. When war can...