We estimate a highly significant price of risk that forecasts global stock and bond returns as a nonlinear function of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). We show that countries' exposure to the global price of risk is related to macroeconomic risks as measured by output, credit, and inflation...

The concept of the natural rate of interest, or r*, has risen to prominence in monetary policy following the Great Financial Crisis. No doubt a key reason for the concept's newfound prominence has been the further decline of real and nominal interest rates to new lows, which has further...