We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model...

The financial crisis of 2007-09 highlighted the changing role of financial institutions and the growing importance of the shadow banking system, which grew out of the securitization of assets and the integration of banking with capital market developments. This trend was most pronounced in the...

We present a microfounded New Keynesian model that features financial vulnerabilities. Financial intermediaries' occasionally binding value-at-risk constraints give rise to variation in the pricing of risk that generates time-varying risk in the conditional mean and volatility of the output gap....

Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, weshow that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, withgrowth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile-more responsive thanthe median or upper percentiles....

The size and the leverage of financial market investors and the elasticity of demand of unlevered investors define MinMaSS, the smallest market size that can support a given degree of leverage. The financial system's potential for financial crises can be measured by the stability ratio, the...

The size and the leverage of financial market investors and the elasticity of demand of unlevered investors define MinMaSS, the smallest market size that can support a given degree of leverage. The financial system's potential for financial crises can be measured by the stability ratio, the...

The financial crisis of 2007-09 has sparked keen interest in models of financial frictions and their impact on macro activity. Most models share the feature that borrowers suffer a contraction in the quantity of credit. However, the evidence suggests that although bank lending contracted during...

We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model...

The financial crisis of 2007-09 has sparked keen interest in models of financial frictions and their impact on macro activity. Most models share the feature that borrowers suffer a contraction in the quantity of credit. However, the evidence suggests that although bank lending contracted during...

We show how to price the time series and cross section of zero coupon bonds via ordinary least squares regressions. Our approach allows computationally fast estimation of term structure models with a large number of pricing factors. Even though we do not impose cross-equation restrictions in the...