Showing 91 - 100 of 224
Bayesian learning provides a core concept of information processing in financial markets. Typically it is assumed that market participants perfectly know the quality of released news. However, in practice, news' precision is rarely disclosed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003693046
This paper delineates the simultaneous impact of non-anticipated information on mean and variance of the intraday return process by including appropriate variables accounting for the news flow into both the mean and the variance function. This allows us to differentiate between the consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544322
This paper delineates the simultaneous impact of non-anticipated information on first and second moments of the intraday price process by including appropriate variables accounting for the news flow into both the mean and the variance function. This allows us to differentiate between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011446937
We examine the determinants of non-resident government debt ownership, accounting for domestic and external factors and financial variables during the period 2000Q2-2014Q4, focussing on a small euro area open economy: Portugal. Our results show that better fiscal positions, higher systematic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001987
Using account level credit-card data from six major commercial banks from January 2009 to December 2013, we apply machine-learning techniques to combined consumer-tradeline, credit-bureau, and macroeconomic variables to predict delinquency. In addition to providing accurate measures of loss...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004558
We study the determinants of sovereign debt ratings from the three main international rating agencies, for the period 1995-2005. Using linear and ordered response models we employ a specification that allows us to distinguish between short and long-run effects, on a country's rating, of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134252
We link governments’ spending efficiency scores, to sovereign debt assessments made by financial markets´, more specifically by three rating agencies (Standard & Poors, Moody´s and Fitch). Public efficiency scores are computed via data envelopment analysis. Then, we rely notably on ordered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238603
The 2007-2008 financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis effects rippled through the financial system, banks and sovereign states. We analyze these events, focusing on the Portuguese and Spanish case after providing an insight into the Eurozone. We assessed the pricing of sovereign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845993
We study the impact of the arrival of macroeconomic news on the informational and noise-driven components in high-frequency quote processes and their conditional variances. Bid and ask returns are decomposed into a common (''efficient return'') factor and two market-side-specific components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012712456
We analyze how markets adjust to new information when the reliability of news is uncertain and has to be estimated itself. We propose a Bayesian learning model where market participants receive fundamental information along with noisy estimates of news' precision. It is shown that the efficiency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012713103