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Fiscal Multipliers in the Eurozone : A SVAR Analysis

Afonso, António - 2018

We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import ones) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2001Q1-2016Q4), and to understand how the values may vary according to the public debt...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913502

Euro Area Time-Varying Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy

Afonso, António; Carvalho, Francisco Tiago - 2021

We assess the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the 19 Euro area countries, notably during recessions, for the period … 1995-2020. We use a time-varying measure of fiscal cyclicality to describe fiscal policy developments. The results suggest … counter-cyclical. Hence, pursuing a Ricardian fiscal regime by more indebted countries leads to higher counter-cyclicality of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321855

Time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy : the case of the Euro area

Afonso, António; Carvalho, Francisco Tiago - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 62 (2022), pp. 1-26

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013538981

Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments : Evidence from Portugal

Afonso, António - 2009

Drawing on quarterly data for Portugal, we use a Three-Stage Least Square method and a system of equations to recursively estimate two components of fiscal policy - responsiveness and persistence - and to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). The results suggest that:...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012719878

The Dynamic Behaviour of Budget Components and Output

Afonso, António; Claeys, Peter - 2008

The main focus of this paper is the relation between the cyclical components of total revenues and expenditures and the budget balance in France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain. We try to uncover past trends behind the development of public finances that contribute to explaining the current stance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014050895

Spend-and-Tax : A Panel Data Investigation for the EU

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - 2009

Using bootstrap panel analysis, allowing for cross-country correlation, without the need of pre-testing for unit roots, we study the causality between government spending and revenue for the EU in the period 1960-2006. We find spend-and-tax causality for Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014202432

Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal

Afonso, António; Claeys, Peter; Sousa, Ricardo M. - 2009

We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978-2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014202433

Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union

Afonso, António - 2008

The prevalence of different fiscal regimes is important both for practical policy reasons and to assess fiscal sustainability, notably for European Union countries. The purpose of this article is to assess, with a panel data set, the empirical evidence concerning the existence of Ricardian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014216686

What Do We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic

Rault, Christophe; Afonso, António - 2008

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014220770

Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in Europe : New Evidence

Afonso, António - 2010

Using alternative approaches to determine fiscal episodes, I assess expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe, via panel models for private consumption. There is some concurring evidence for several budgetary spending items while the asymmetric effects of fiscal episodes do not seem to be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014223763