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Bank Regulation and Sovereign Risk : A Paradox
Afonso, António; Teixeira, André - 2023
This paper investigates the impact of banking prudential regulation on sovereign risk. We show that prudential regulation reduces sovereign risk and induces governments to spend more. As a result, countries with tight prudential regulation have lower primary budget balances and accumulate more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350655
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Euro Area Time-Varying Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy
Afonso, António; Carvalho, Francisco Tiago - 2021
We assess the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the 19 Euro area countries, notably during recessions, for the period … 1995-2020. We use a time-varying measure of fiscal cyclicality to describe fiscal policy developments. The results suggest … counter-cyclical. Hence, pursuing a Ricardian fiscal regime by more indebted countries leads to higher counter-cyclicality of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321855
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Time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy : the case of the Euro area
Afonso, António; Carvalho, Francisco Tiago - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 62 (2022), pp. 1-26
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013538981
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Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments : Evidence from Portugal
Afonso, António - 2009
Drawing on quarterly data for Portugal, we use a Three-Stage Least Square method and a system of equations to recursively estimate two components of fiscal policy - responsiveness and persistence - and to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). The results suggest that:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012719878
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Fiscal policy, housing and stock prices
Afonso, António; Sousa, Ricardo M. - 2009
This paper investigates the link between fiscal policy shocks and movements in asset markets using a Fully Simultaneous System approach in a Bayesian framework. Building on the works of Blanchard and Perotti (2002), Leeper and Zha (2003), and Sims and Zha (1999, 2006), the empirical evidence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826474
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The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy
Afonso, António; Sousa, Ricardo M. - 2009
We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach. We build on a recursive identification scheme, but we: (i) include the feedback from government debt (ii); look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826480
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Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence and discretion
Afonso, António; Agnello, Luca; Furceri, Davide - 2008
We decompose fiscal policy in three components: i) responsiveness, ii) persistence and iii) discretion. Using a sample of 132 countries, our results point out that fiscal policy tends to be more persistent than to respond to output conditions. We also found that while the effect of cross-country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794171
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Fiscal behaviour in the European Union : rules, fiscal decentralization and government indebtedness
Afonso, António; Hauptmeier, Sebastian - 2009
We assess the fiscal behaviour in the European Union countries for the period 1990-2005 via the responsiveness of budget balances to several determinants. The results show that the existence of effective fiscal rules, the degree of public spending decentralization, and the electoral cycle can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003866536
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Fiscal policy and growth : do financial crises make a difference?
Afonso, António; Grüner, Hans Peter; Kolerus, Christina - 2010
In this paper we assess to what extent in the existence of a financial crisis, government spending can contribute to mitigate economic downturns in the short run and whether such impact differs in crisis and non crisis times. We use panel analysis for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983667
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Assessing long-term fiscal developments : a new approach
Afonso, António; Agnello, Luca; Furceri, Davide - 2009
We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue responsiveness and persistence - we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832368