We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach. We build on a recursive identification scheme, but we: (i) include the feedback from government debt (ii); look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the...

We examine the relationship between inflation and fiscal sustainability with a two-step approach. In the first step, we estimate to estimate a country-specific time-varying measure of fiscal sustainability using the fiscal reaction function. This function captures the response of the primary...

We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the mean-reverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel...

We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The "need" to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the...

We empirically assess whether a usually expected negative response of private consumption and private investment to a fiscal consolidation is reversed. We focus on a large sample of 174 countries between 1970 and 2018. We also employ three alternative measures of the Cyclically Adjusted Primary...

This study re-examines the nexus between the fiscal balance and the current account balance for 18 OECD countries for the period 1995Q1 to 2018Q1 using panel cointegration, and panel vector autoregressive (VAR) methods. Our results indicate that a strengthening in the fiscal balance by one...

We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries, over the period 1970-2010, using unit root and cointegration analysis, both country and panel based, controlling for endogenous breaks. Results notably show: lack of cointegration – absence of sustainability – between...

We estimate fiscal responses for an OECD panel, accounting for cross-country interactions, and also estimate the fiscal responses in a panel VAR. We find that governments have increased primary balances when facing higher government indebtedness, implying a Ricardian fiscal regime, while primary...

In an OCDE panel, for the period 1970-2010, we assess the effects of fiscal consolidation episodes, with four different definitions. Our results reveal that lower final government consumption would increase private consumption in three out of the four approaches, when there is a fiscal...

We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries, over the period 1970-2010, using unit root and cointegration analysis, both country and panel based, controlling for endogenous breaks. Results notably show: lack of cointegration – absence of sustainability – between...