Entrepreneurs must choose between alternative strategies for bringing their idea to market. They face uncertainty regarding both the quality of their idea as well as the efficacy of each strategy. While entrepreneurs can reduce this uncertainty by conducting tests, any single test conflates the...

Entrepreneurs must choose between alternative strategies for bringing their idea to market. They face uncertainty regarding both the quality of their idea as well as the efficacy of each strategy. While entrepreneurs can reduce this uncertainty by conducting tests, any single test conflates the...

Entrepreneurs must choose between alternative strategies for bringing their idea to market. They face uncertainty regarding both the quality of their idea as well as the efficacy of each strategy. While entrepreneurs can reduce this uncertainty by conducting tests, any single test conflates the...

Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) - a general purpose technology affecting many industries - has been focused on advances in machine learning, which we recast as a quality-adjusted drop in the price of prediction. How will this sharp drop in price impact society? Policy will...

Based on recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), we examine what type of human labor will be a substitute versus a complement to emerging technologies. We argue that these recent developments reduce the costs of providing a particular set of tasks - prediction tasks....

Recent artificial intelligence advances can be seen as improvements in prediction. We examine how such predictions should be priced. We model two inputs into decisions: a prediction of the state and the payoff or utility from different actions in that state. The payoff is unknown, and can only...

We interpret recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) as improvements in prediction technology. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in decision-making. To do so, we adapt existing models of decision-making under uncertainty to account for the...

Recent artificial intelligence advances can be seen as improvements in prediction. We examine how such predictions should be priced. We model two inputs into decisions: a prediction of the state and the payoff or utility from different actions in that state. The payoff is unknown, and can only...

We interpret recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) as improvements in prediction technology. In this paper, we explore the consequences of improved prediction in decision-making. To do so, we adapt existing models of decision-making under uncertainty to account for the...

Recent advances in artificial intelligence are primarily driven by machine learning, a prediction technology. Prediction is useful because it is an input into decision-making. In order to appreciate the impact of artificial intelligence on jobs, it is important to understand the relative roles...