Using a small empirical model of inflation, output, and money estimated on U.S. data, we compare the relative performance of monetary targeting and inflation targeting. The results show that monetary targeting would be quite inefficient, with both higher inflation and output variability. This is...

The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest...