This paper evaluates the challenges facing developing countries when there is uncertainty about the policy maker type. We consider a country characterized by volatile output, inelastic demand for fiscal outlays, high tax collection costs, and sovereign risk, where future output depends on the...

November 2000 - A two-step approach is used to assess the extent to which the credit crunch in East Asia was supply- or demand-driven. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Agénor, Aizenman, and...

June 2000 - When households face the possibility of borrowing constraints in bad times, favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade may lead to higher rates of private savings. Agénor and Aizenman examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an...

A positive historical shock to external spreads can lead to an increase in domestic spreads and a reduction in the cyclical component of output. Shocks to external spreads immediately after the Mexican peso crisis had a sizable effect on movements in output and domestic interest rate spreads in...

In a country where financial intermediation is highly inefficient (with the enforcement costs of loan contracts very high, for example), or in one experiencing great volatility and large adverse shocks in output, the likelihood of an inefficient equilibrium is great. In East Asia it may be in...