This paper investigates the nature of model error in complex deterministic nonlinear systems such as weather forecasting models. Forecasting systems incorporate two components, a forecast model and a data assimilation method. The latter projects a collection of observations of reality into a...

Ensemble prediction systems aim to account for uncertainties of initial conditions and model error. Ensemble forecasting is sometimes viewed as a method of obtaining (objective) probabilistic forecasts. How is one to judge the quality of an ensemble at forecasting a system? The probability that...

ROPER S., YOUTIE J., SHAPIRA P. and FERNANDEZ-RIBAS A. Knowledge, capabilities and manufacturing innovation: a USA-Europe comparison, Regional Studies. This paper presents a comparative analysis of factors contributing to the innovation performance of manufacturing firms in Georgia (USA), Wales...

The provision of advisory support to small firms is almost ubiquitous in OECD countries, although it is organised in different ways and is justified on slightly different grounds. In England publicly supported advisory services are provided through the Business Link (BL) network. Here, we...

Public support for private R&D and innovation is part of most national and regional innovation support regimes. In this article, we estimate the effect of public innovation support oil innovation outputs in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Three dimensions of output additionality are, considered...

Love J. H., Roper S. and Hewitt-Dundas N. Service innovation, embeddedness and business performance: evidence from Northern Ireland, Regional Studies. This paper explores the factors that determine innovation by service firms, and in particular the contribution of intra- and extra-regional...

Parameter estimation in nonlinear models is a common task, and one for which there is no general solution at present. In the case of linear models, the distribution of forecast errors provides a reliable guide to parameter estimation, but in nonlinear models the facts that predictability may...

This work is motivated by dose-finding studies, where the number of events per subject within a specified study period form the primary outcome. The aim of the considered studies is to identify the target dose for which the new drug can be shown to be as effective as a competitor medication....

A common approach to analysing clinical trials with multiple outcomes is to control the probability for the trial as a whole of making at least one incorrect positive finding under any configuration of true and false null hypotheses. Popular approaches are to use Bonferroni corrections or...

The frequently used approach to the comparison of two linear regression models is to use the partial F test. It is pointed out in this paper that the partial F test has in fact a naturally associated two-sided simultaneous confidence band, which is much more informative than the test itself. But...