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Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors : an application to German GDP
Kuzin, Vladimir; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Schumacher, … - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826917
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Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors : an application to German GDP
Kuzin, Vladimir; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Schumacher, … - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003830461
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Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors : an application to German GDP
Kuzin, Vladimir; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Schumacher, … - 2009
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the presence of model uncertainty with large, unbalanced datasets. Empirically, unbalanced data is pervasive in economics and typically due to different sampling frequencies and publication delays. Two model classes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003811129
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Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting GDP with many predictors : empirical evidence for six industrialized countries
Kuzin, Vladimir; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Schumacher, … - In: Journal of applied econometrics 28 (2013) 3, pp. 392-411
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756514
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Business confidence and forecasting of housing prices and rents in large German cities
Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2014
households and account for a large proportion of bank lending. In Germany, the housing accounts for more than a half of wealth of … increases have been observed in Germany. This raised doubts and fears in German society. On the one hand, it is feared that … Germany can follow the path of Spain, Ireland, and other bubble countries that ended in a severe economic crisis. On the other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505867
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A dynamic panel data approach to the forecasting of the GDP of German Länder
Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Siliverstovs, Boriss; … - 2007 - Corrected version
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GDP for each of the 16 German Länder (states) simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, such as pooled and fixed-effects models, we apply panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039490
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Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function
Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009
Based on annual data for growth and inflation forecasts for Germany covering the time span from 1970 to 2007 and up to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425865
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Think national, forecast local : a case study of 71 German urban housing markets
Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Siliverstovs, Boriss - In: Applied economics 49 (2017) 42, pp. 4271-4297
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011820094
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Think national, forecast local : a case study of 71 German urban housing markets
Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2015
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to predict housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. We are interested in whether local business confidence indicators facilitate substantial improvements of the forecasts,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482020
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Do forecasters inform or reassure? : evaluation of the German real-time data
Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003799732