In this paper we report the results of a series of internal and external shocks on the Euro Area, using the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. The differences in impacts across countries are discussed, stressing the role of openness to the rest of the world, the nature of...

There is growing interest in examining the short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual...