The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...

About the authors -- Preface -- Learning tools walkthrough -- Money and the financial system -- An introduction to money and the financial system -- Money and the payments system -- Interest rates, financial instruments, and financial markets -- Future value, present value, and interest rates --...

The financial system -- An overview of financial markets and institutions -- The federal reserve and its powers -- The fed and interest rates -- Bond prices and interest rate risk -- The structure of interest rates -- Financial markets -- Money markets -- Bond markets -- Mortgage markets --...