This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive, but heterogeneous forms of, inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel...

This paper apportions responsability for inefficency in a market for state contingent claims between market makers and traders. We specifically examine the origins of a frequently observed distortion in the market for bets in horseraces- the favorite- longshot bias. Previous studies rationalise...

This paper seeks to offer new insights into the behavioral origins of the 'favourite-longshot' bias- an established feature of betting markets, whereby longshots win less often than the subjective probabilities imply and favourites more often. This study analyses a new data source which offers...

The objective of this paper is to explore the extent to which human judgement and resultant decision-making in a natural setting reflects the performance characteristics suggested by experimental work. in order to explore the quality of decisions made in a natural setting, an analysis is...