From interbank interest rate option prices, we obtain the implied market expectations for interest rates using a genetic algorithm and a multifactor term structure model. We further analyse how those expectations differ for a subset of options and futures, and whether those expectations...

This paper examines the forecast power of subsets of the option-implied interest rate derivatives’ expectations. We use a string market model with three factors to extract the implied risk-neutral volatility of the short-end interest rate term structure. Using data from the Brazil derivatives...

We show that term premia rise when volatility increases in Brazil, whereas the literature shows that volatility is negatively correlated with term premia in advanced economies. We analyze how marketexpectations differ for a subset of options and futures and whether those expectations accurately...