We propose a relatively simple, accurate and flexible approach to forecasting the distribution of defaulted debt recovery outcomes. Our approach is based on mixtures of Gaussian distributions, explicitly conditioned on borrower characteristics, debt instrument characteristics and credit...

Surveys on the use of agency credit ratings reveal that most investors believe that rating agencies are relatively slow in adjusting their ratings. (...)

Reviews on financial distress prediction models indicate that these techniques give highly reliable estimates of probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGD) only for relatively short horizons, rarely beyond two years. Major stakeholders, e.g. investors and bank risk and capital...

This paper explores the impressive growth in the high-yield, leveraged loan and distressed debt markets and comments on the unusually low current default rates and high recoveries in these markets. The main reasons for these low default rates are the unprecedented growth in liquidity from...

This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002.(...)

This paper analyzes the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship.(...)

This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002.(...)

This paper analyses the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects of this relationship...

The year 2001 was remarkable on many fronts. For the high yield market, it was a year of crushing record numbers of defaults and distressed exchanges, combined with predictable low recovery rates. Despite these fundamental problems and the quot;flight to qualityquot; following the terrorist...