Forty years ago, I developed a method of predicting bankruptcies by U.S. [public] companies that makes use of equity market values as well as fundamental financial and operating data. Since that time, my 'Z-Score' model has become one of the most widely used methods for assessing the...

Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, New York University (NYU). He is also director of research in credit and debt markets at NYU's Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. An internationally recognized expert on...

Reviews on financial distress prediction models indicate that these techniques give highly reliable estimates of probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGD) only for relatively short horizons, rarely beyond two years. Major stakeholders, e.g. investors and bank risk and capital...