This paper analyses the recent productivity slowdown, attempting to distinguish permanent from cyclical changes. It then considers the implications for anti-inflationary policies, discussing the short-run effects of more restrictive policies as well as the prospects for reducing inflation in the...

Since the trough in 1982, the growth of real foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows and inflows for the OECD countries has been very high, far outpacing that of foreign trade and real GDP. While such flows are likely to have increased the efficiency with which global capital is being used,...

As central banks have moved towards a forward-looking implementation of monetary policy, the role of forecasts in the policy process has greatly increased. Against this background, this paper looks at the accuracy of forecasts and, more specifically, addresses the question whether forecasts of...

This paper summarises the main features of an expectations-augmented Phillips curve with accompanying mark-up price equations. The empirical counterparts for six countries are presented. Even though preliminary, the results are relatively satisfactory in terms of statistical fit and a priori...

Iceland was a high inflation country from the second half of the seventies and until the middle of the eighties. During the middle of the nineties inflation in Iceland, at less than 2% p.a., was among the lowest in the OECD. In this paper we analyse the roots of high inflation in Iceland and the...

The focus of monetary policy has shifted markedly over the past 15 years away from attempts to fine tune the economy towards the longer-run goal of attaining price stability and creating the necessary conditions for sustainable economic growth. In an attempt to minimise the costs of such a...

This paper provides a broad description of labour market developments in selected LDCs, relying on several direct and indirect indicators, and then presents a rudimentary quantitative analysis of the determinants of labour demand. The focus is then turned more specifically on Taiwan and South...

From an international perspective, the European rate of unemployment has been high and growing over the last one to two decades; against this background, the parallel rise in profit shares in a number of European countries seems to be at odds with expected economic behaviour.

The purpose of this note is to derive measures of ex ante long-term real interest rates that satisfy Fisher's notion of a long-run relationship between expectations of inflation and nominal interest rates. We do so by adopting a backward-looking approach that also takes account of the increasing...

This paper discusses developments in energy consumption and oil markets since the early 1970s, highlighting the fall in energy and oil consumption per unit of output and the accompanying reduction in industrialised countries' exposure and vulnerability to energy shocks. In an attempt to analyse...