In almost all walks of life, predicting uncertain future events plays an essential role in decision-making processes. However, information related to future events frequently exists only as dispersed opinions, insights, and intuitions of individuals. Each individual only knows a little, but...

Forecasting seems to be a ubiquitous endeavor in human societies. In this paper, information markets are introduced as a promising mechanism for predicting uncertain outcomes. Information markets are markets that are specially designed for aggregating information and making predictions on future...

We propose a model for demand estimation in multi-agent, differentiated product settings and present an estimation algorithm that uses reversible jump MCMC techniques to classify agents' types. Our model extends the popular setup in Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995) to allow for the data-driven...