When the error correction term exhibits persistence, its change may convey useful information about short-run economic dynamics, which, if not taken sufficiently into account by a forecasting model, could be associated with predictable forecast errors. Such errors are documented in the DRI...

Taking explicitly into account the forward-looking nature of consumption, this paper derives a non-linear equation for consumption growth in which the coefficient of contemporaneous expected income growth is an increasing (decreasing) function of lagged variables positively (negatively)...

Reflecting the nature of economic decisions, the error correction mechanism (ECM) in the error-correction representation of a system of co-integrated variables may arise from forward-looking behavior. In such a case, the estimated ECM coefficients may misleadingly appear to be insignificant or...