In this work we study the relation between investment in R&D, the technological innovation, diffusion, fluctuations and growth of output. Technological innovation is the result of a process (investment in R&D) whose final outcome is fundamentally uncertain. We model innovation as a Polya urn...

In the following Part II the deterministic and stochastic laws of motion arising from the processes depicted in Part I (particulary Section 2), are analyzed in detail. In section 4 we study the typical non-linear logistic model emerging as the deterministic equivalent of the diffusion processes...