Forecasting procedures are needed only if there is uncertainty about the future. Forecasts are unnecessary when one can control events. For example, predicting the temperature in your home does not require the use of forecasting procedures because you can control it. A forecast that the sun will...

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods....

The state of election forecasting has progressed to the point where it is possible to develop highly accurate forecasts for major elections. However, one area that has received little attention is the use of forecasting as an aid to those involved with political campaigns. In the run-up to the...