This article establishes a co-integration analysis for the euro area (sample period: 1983-2000), identifying three co-integrating vectors: one which can be labelled money demand (in which real M3 money balances are related to output, with unit elasticity, and the long rate of interest); another...

This paper proposes a dating algorithm based on an appropriately defined Markov chain that enforces alternation of peaks and troughs, and duration constraints concerning the phases and the full cycle. The algorithm, which implements Harding and Pagan's non-parametric dating methodology, allows...

In this paper we compare alternative approaches for dating the Euro area business cycle and analyzing its characteristics. First, we extend a commonly used dating procedure to allow for length, size and amplitude restrictions, and to compute the probability of a phase change. Second, we apply...