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Empirical macromodels under test : a comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions
Buscher, Herbert S.; Buslei, Hermann; Göggelmann, Klaus; … - 1998 - Preliminary version
In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011442295
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Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting
Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012
. The two strategies are compared by means of a Monte-Carlo simulation study together with an empirical application to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630302
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Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations : an application to fiscal policy simulations using an aggregate disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960-1994
Franz, Wolfgang; Göggelmann, Klaus; Schellhorn, Martin; … - 1998
Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations … possible margin. Because of nonlinearities confidence intervals for the simulation results have to be obtained by means of … stochastic simulations. The main contribution of this paper consists in presenting the simulation results. The robustness of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441040
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Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Stochastic Simulations : An Application to Policy Simulations Using a Disequilibrium Model of the West German Economy 1960-1994
Franz, Wolfgang; Goeggelmann, Klaus; Schellhorn, Martin; … - 2000
Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations …. The application of a macroeconometric disequilibrium model of the West German economy to a fiscal policy simulation is … the simulation results have to be obtained by means of stochastic simulations. The robustness of the results is assessed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014153608
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Fear of liftoff : uncertainty, rules and discreation in monetary policy normalization
Orphanides, Athanasios - 2015
The Federal Reserve's muddled mandate to attain simultaneously the incompatible goals of maximum employment and price stability invites short-term-oriented discretionary policymaking inconsistent with the systematic approach needed for monetary policy to contribute best to the economy over time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327424
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Fiscal implications of central bank balance sheet policies
Orphanides, Athanasios - 2016
Under ordinary circumstances, the fiscal implications of central bank policies tend to be seen as relatively minor and escape close scrutiny. The global financial crisis of 2008, however, demanded an extraordinary response by central banks which brought to light the immense power of central bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011498983
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Fear of Liftoff : Uncertainty, Rules, and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization
Orphanides, Athanasios - 2019
As the author describes it, the Federal Reserve’s muddled mandate to attain simultaneously the incompatible goals of maximum employment and price stability invites short-term-oriented discretionary policymaking inconsistent with the systematic approach needed for monetary policy to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903929
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Fear of Liftoff : Uncertainty, Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization
Orphanides, Athanasios - 2015
The Federal Reserve's muddled mandate to attain simultaneously the incompatible goals of maximum employment and price stability invites short-term-oriented discretionary policymaking inconsistent with the systematic approach needed for monetary policy to contribute best to the economy over time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017027
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European Headwind : ECB Policy and Fed Normalization
Orphanides, Athanasios - 2014
The monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed over the past few years are compared and contrasted. The two central banks have similar price stability objectives and faced similar conditions early in the crisis, including the zero bound on short-term interest rates. Since mid-2012, their policies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044320
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Central bank policies and the debt trap
Orphanides, Athanasios; Ke, T. Tony - 2017
Monetary policy and fiscal dynamics are inexorably linked. When a government faces the risk of getting caught in a high debt trap, debt monetization may become an appealing option. However, independent central banks may be able to allay debt concerns without compromising price stability. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011749492