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Empirical macromodels under test : a comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions
Buscher, Herbert S.; Buslei, Hermann; Göggelmann, Klaus; … - 1998 - Preliminary version
In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011442295
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Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting
Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012
. The two strategies are compared by means of a Monte-Carlo simulation study together with an empirical application to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630302
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Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations : an application to fiscal policy simulations using an aggregate disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960-1994
Franz, Wolfgang; Göggelmann, Klaus; Schellhorn, Martin; … - 1998
Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations … possible margin. Because of nonlinearities confidence intervals for the simulation results have to be obtained by means of … stochastic simulations. The main contribution of this paper consists in presenting the simulation results. The robustness of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441040
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Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Stochastic Simulations : An Application to Policy Simulations Using a Disequilibrium Model of the West German Economy 1960-1994
Franz, Wolfgang; Goeggelmann, Klaus; Schellhorn, Martin; … - 2000
Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations …. The application of a macroeconometric disequilibrium model of the West German economy to a fiscal policy simulation is … the simulation results have to be obtained by means of stochastic simulations. The robustness of the results is assessed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014153608
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Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty
Levin, Andrew T.; Wieland, Volker; Williams, John C. - 1999
In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014202911
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The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty
Williams, John C.; Levin, Andrew T.; Wieland, Volker - 2021
We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year ahead inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320751
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Investment and employment adjustment after unification : some results from a macroeconometric disequilibrium model
Radowski, Daniel; Smolny, Werner; Winker, Peter - 1999
The macroeconomic development in West Germany in the aftermath of unification was characterized by a boom period in 1990/1991, a deep recession in 1992/1993 and a slow recovery since then. In East Germany, in contrast, unification induced a breakdown of production and employment followed by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443447
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Modeling German unification in a disequilibrium framework
Winker, Peter; Smolny, Werner; Radowski, Daniel - 1999
Unification fundamentally changed the terms of quantitative macroeconomic analysis for Germany. Two main areas concerned are data availability for the eastern part of Germany and structural changes within the behavioural equations after unification. Our paper presents results from the estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443482
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Simple Rules for Monetary Policy
Williams, John C. - 1999
What is a good monetary policy rule for stabilizing the economy? In this paper, efficient policy rules are computed using the FRB/US large-scale open-economy macroeconometric model. Simple three-parameter policy rules are found to be very effective at minimizing fluctuations in inflation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014196295