Economic consequences of the Georgian-Russian conflict (by P. Havlik and V. Astrov, pp. 1-11) Keywords Georgia, Russia …, conflict, war Countries covered Georgia, Russia Topics Macroeconomic Analysis, Forecasts and Policy EU Structural funds in …

the eastern part of the CESEE region, the Ukraine conflict has had a pronounced negative impact on economic growth. 25 … dangerous geopolitical conflict. In Ukraine, the main victim of the conflict, the economy may decline by 8% over the current … year. In Russia, the costs of the conflict are estimated to be to the tune of about 1% of GDP, primarily on account of …

potential) EU candidate countries either. Output in those countries is not expected to grow faster than in the NMS. Turkey … the exception of Turkey, those countries seem to have put high inflation behind them. Nonetheless, their unemployment … figures continue to be dismal (less so only in Turkey). They will also run high (or even very high) current account deficits …

2011 (Turkey, the three Baltic countries and Kazakhstan), growth will also slow down. Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine and Russia …

euro area crisis (such as Russia, Poland, Ukraine and Turkey), growth dynamics progressively decelerated in the second half … the CESEE region the Baltic states, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey, which are less dependent on the troubled euro area and …

-Ukraine conflict; in particular the interruption of energy supplies, potential trade embargoes or additional interest rate risk premia …

remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey …

years, growth will speed up, but will remain below potential for most CESEE countries except Kazakhstan and likely Turkey … growth resuming in Turkey. By and large, Central European countries are relying on a positive contribution from net exports … also Turkey, rely on a continued positive contribution of household consumption, and Kazakhstan on receipts from sales of …