With the Great Recession leaving nearly all advanced economies with substantially higher debt–gross domestic product ratios, this paper re-evaluates the long-term fiscal sustainability of these economies based on current estimates of their current-policy fiscal trajectories. Through measuring...

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of budget balances. The approach is based on a disaggregated...

This report examines the federal budget outlook and evaluates alternative fiscal policy choices. Official projections of the federal budget surplus have declined dramatically in the past year. Adjusting these measures for the treatment of retirement trust funds, realistic estimates of future tax...