This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the pres-ence of model uncertainty with large, unbalanced datasets. Empirically, unbalanceddata is pervasive in economics and typically due to di¤erent sampling frequencies andpublication delays. Two model classes...

Using two data sets derived from German administrative data, including a linkedemployer-employee data set, we investigate the cyclicality of worker and job flows.The analysis stresses the importance of two-sided labour market heterogeneity inthis context, taking into account both observed and...

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of labour market dynamics in Western Germany by looking at gross worker flows. To do so, we use a subsample of the registry data collected by the German social security system, the IAB employment sample, for the time period 1975-2001. The latter...

It is investigated whether Euro-area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-Euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-Euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic...

This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR(MF-VAR) approaches to model speci…cation in the presence of mixed-frequency data,e.g., monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models based onexponential lag polynomials for the coe¢ cients, whereas...