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Learning, forecasting and optimizing : an experimental study
Te, Bao; Duffy, John; Hommes, Cars H. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191021
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From self-fulfilling mistakes to behavioral learning equilibria
Hommes, Cars H. - 2017
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
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Behavioral and experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis : a complex systems approach
Hommes, Cars H. - 2018
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929804
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Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations
Hommes, Cars H.; Lustenhouwer, Joep; Mavromatis, Kostas - 2017
We analyze fiscal consolidations using a New Keynesian model where agents have heterogeneous expectations and are uncertain about the composition of consolidations. We look at spending-based and tax-based consolidations and analyze their effects separately. We find that the effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011770688
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Can we manage first impressions in cooperation problems? An experimental study on "Broken (and Fixed) Windows"
Engel, Christoph; Kube, Sebastian; Kurschilgen, Michael - 2011
Cooperation problems are at the heart of many everyday situations. In this paper, we propose a very simple and light-handed mechanism to sustain cooperation and test its performance in a rich laboratory environment. The mechanism moderates cooperation by controlling experiences, more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281841
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of individuals, with positive expectations feedback through speculative demand. When prices deviate from fundamental value, a random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012114769
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Bubble formation and (in)efficient markets in learning-to-forecast and -optimise experiments
Te, Bao; Hommes, Cars H.; Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2015
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
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Can we manage first impressions in cooperation problems? : an experimental study on "Broken (and Fixed) Windows"
Engel, Christoph; Kube, Sebastian; Kurschilgen, Michael - 2011
Cooperation problems are at the heart of many everyday situations. In this paper, we propose a very simple and light-handed mechanism to sustain cooperation and test its performance in a rich laboratory environment. The mechanism moderates cooperation by controlling experiences, more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009007141
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Bubbles, Crashes and Information Contagion in Large-Group Asset Market Experiments
Hommes, Cars H. - 2019
We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of individuals, with positive expectations feedback through speculative demand. When prices deviate from fundamental value, a random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892070