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Due to the near unit-root behavior of interest rates, the movements of individual interest-rate series are inherently difficult to forecast. In this paper, we propose an innovative way of applying dynamic term structure models to forecast interest-rate movements. Instead of directly forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012713236
This paper analyzes one potential source of misspecification of existing models of the short-term interest rate and introduces a new class of discrete-time econometric specifications that nests many existing interest rate models as special cases. In existing continuous-time or time-series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755986
This paper compares the empirical performance of a wide variety of well-known diffusion models - with particular emphasis on the Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) term structure model - in capturing the dynamic behavior of interest rate volatility. Many popular models are nested within a more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755988
power of nested and non-nested models in capturing the stochastic behavior of the risk-free rate. Empirical evidence on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755992
Inspired by Aumann and Serrano (2008) and Foster and Hart (2009), we propose risk-neutral options' implied measures of … riskiness and investigate their significance in predicting the cross section of expected returns per unit of risk. The empirical … stock returns. Stocks in the lowest riskiness portfolio have economically and statistically higher risk-adjusted returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114947
positive link between aggregate riskiness and market risk premium remains intact after controlling for the S&P500 index option … characterized by high aggregate risk aversion and high expected returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091047
-varying riskiness and expected market returns. The significantly positive link between aggregate riskiness and market risk premium … showing that aggregate riskiness is higher during economic downturns characterized by high aggregate risk aversion and high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091172
The low (high) abnormal returns of stocks with high (low) beta - the beta anomaly - is one of the most persistent anomalies in empirical asset pricing research. This paper demonstrates that investors' demand for lottery-like stocks is an important driver of the beta anomaly. The beta anomaly is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006629
and uncertainty in the exercise of these options. UNC is also associated with information risk, firm inflexibility, and … generates 13% annual risk-adjusted return. UNC premium is driven by outperformance of high-UNC (inflexible) firms facing higher … information risk and is not explained by established risk factors and firm characteristics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850671
fairly priced stocks. Thus, our results support the mispricing and arbitrage risk hypotheses that the positive (negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856755