This paper analyzes the implications of currency crises in a model with unique equilibrium. Starting from a typical multiple equilibria model with self-fulfilling expectations we introduce noisy information, following Morris/Shin (1999). Under certain conditions for the noise parameter, all...

Market participants often suspect that large traders have a disproportionate effect on financial markets, increasing the aggressiveness of market responses. Prior studies have shown that the impact of a large trader on a currency crisis depends positively on his "size" and informational...

This paper reconsiders a central bank's problem of determining rules for information dissemination and risk taking behavior that minimize the probability of currency crises. In a global games approach, we find that optimal transparency is adversely related to prior market beliefs. In countries...

Market participants often suspect that large traders have a disproportionate effect on financial markets, increasing the aggressiveness of market responses. Prior studies have shown that the impact of a large trader on a currency crisis depends positively on his "size" and informational...

The recent Asian currency crisis was caused by large prospective fiscal deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. Absent the political will to raise taxes or cut spending, governments must resort to seignorage revenues to pay for the bailout of the banking...

This paper explores the implications of different strategies for financing the fiscal cost of twin crises for inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits, (ii) there...

In the Mexican Peso crisis 1994/95, the lack of readily available information, particularly regarding monetary aggregates, has often been commented on. This paper analyzes empirically whether information disparity with respect to economic fundamentals contributed to the crisis. Using historical...

This paper reconsiders the principal's problem of determining the optimal combination of risk taking and information dissemination, when threatened with a coordinated speculative attack on the fixed exchange rate by traders, respectively a coordinated withdrawal of credits by a group of lenders....

This paper addresses two questions: (i) how do governments actually pay for the fiscal costs associated with currency crises; and (ii) what are the implications of different fi­nancing methods for post-crisis rates of inflation and depreciation? We study these questions using a general...

This paper argues that the recent Southeast Asian currency crises was caused by large prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. We articulate this view using a simple dynamic general equilibrium model whose key feature is that a speculative...