We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...

We develop a general equilibrium model in which income and dividends are smooth but asset prices contain large moves (jumps). These large price jumps are triggered by optimal decisions of investors to learn the unobserved state. We show that learning choice is determined by preference parameters...

We show that bond risk premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...

In the data, we show that bond risk premia increase at times of high uncertainty about expected inflation and decrease with high uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of bond return predictability by these two uncertainty measures is similar to that found based on multiple yield...

In this paper we develop an economic asset pricing framework that identifies three key sources of risk that underlie the risk and return tradeoff in the economy: news to cashflows, news to expected returns, and news to aggregate volatility. A novel contribution of this paper is the inclusion of...

We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are persistent and are strongly correlated with discount-rate news....

The central puzzles in financial economics commonly include violations of the expectations hypotheses, predictability of excess returns, and the levels and volatilities of nominal bond yields, in addition to well-known equity premium and the risk-free rate puzzles. Equally surprising is the...

In the data, asset prices exhibit large negative moves at frequencies of about 18 months. These large moves are puzzling as they do not coincide, nor are they followed by any significant moves in the real side of the economy. On the other hand, we find that measures of investor's uncertainty...

We develop a general equilibrium model in which income and dividends are smooth, but asset prices are subject to large moves (jumps). A prominent feature of the model is that the optimal decision of investors to learn the unobserved state triggers large asset-price jumps. We show that the...