We offer a word of caution to policymakers: Policies based on point estimates of the output gap may not rest on solid ground.

The U.S. financial growth between 1995 and 2006 certainly translated into record-high shareholder returns. Labor compensation returns were also dramatically high at the onset of the current crisis.

The recent strengthening of the correlations between U.S. GDP growth and that of Mexico, Canada, and Euro-19 validates further consideration of the performance of U.S. trade partners for growth.