Barro, Robert J.; Redlick, Charles J. - 2010
"For United States annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0 ….4–0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6-0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is "permanent" (gauged by Ramey's defense-news variable …-budget multiplier for defense spending is negative. We have some evidence that tax changes affect GDP mainly through substitution …