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We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the...
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In an 80-country panel since the 1960s, the convergence rate for per capita GDP is around 1.7% per year. This "beta … "iron-law" rate of 2%. In the post-1960s panel, estimation without country fixed effects supports the modernization … long-term panel with country fixed effects also supports modernization, in the sense of positive effects of per capita GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101830
In an 80-country panel since the 1960s, the convergence rate for per capita GDP is around 1.7% per year. This "beta … "iron-law" rate of 2%. In the post-1960s panel, estimation without country fixed effects supports the modernization … long-term panel with country fixed effects also supports modernization, in the sense of positive effects of per capita GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460366
Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary approaches for characterizing macroeconomic variables and understanding asset pricing. We estimate a model with RE and LRR using long-term consumption data for 42 economies, identify these two types of risks simultaneously from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012854524
From 1836 to 2011, the average real rate of price change for gold in the United States is 1.1% per year and the standard deviation is 13.1%, implying a one-standard-deviation confidence band for the mean of (0.1%, 2.1%). The covariances of gold's real rate of price change with consumption and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951197
The potential for rare macroeconomic disasters may explain an array of asset-pricing puzzles. Our empirical studies of these extreme events rely on long-term data now covering 28 countries for consumption and 40 for GDP. A baseline model calibrated with observed peak-to-trough disaster sizes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009251532
Barro et al. (2022) investigate the quantity of safe assets held in the cross-section of developed countries and find that the average safe-asset ratio (ratio of safe assets to total assets) was 37% in 2015 and has remained relatively stable over time. They also document a crowding-out...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543738