Similar Search Results

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346927

Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2014

forecast combinations to vary across forecast horizons. While the latter approach is not always more accurate than selecting … mean-squared prediction error of real-time pooled forecasts is between 3% and 29% lower than that of the no-change forecast … as well as quarterly forecasts. We illustrate how forecast pooling may be used to produce real-time forecasts of the real …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010418248

Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - In: Energy economics 46 (2014), pp. 33-43

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299353

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2015

no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464683

Energy markets and global economic conditions

Baumeister, Christiane; Korobilis, Dimitris; Lee, Thomas - 2020

This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213172

Energy markets and global economic conditions

Baumeister, Christiane; Korobilis, Dimitris; Lee, Thomas - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012221159

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Killian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - In: Journal of applied econometrics 32 (2017) 2, pp. 275-295

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011689781

Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010393825

Time-varying effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy

Baumeister, Christiane; Peersman, Gert - 2012

We use vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate how the dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy have changed over time. We find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-eighties. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009424731