This Appendix contains additional empirical results with respect to the published article. In Section 1, the posterior results for the HDP parameters of the IHMS- ARMA models are presented for the U.S. GDP growth rate and inflation series. In Section 2, we report additional in-sample and...

Markov-switching models are usually specified under the assumption that all the parameters change when a regime switch occurs. Relaxing this hypothesis and being able to detect which parameters evolve over time is relevant for interpreting the changes in the dynamics of the series, for...

I. The Statistical Model -- 1.1 Notation -- 1.2 Interpretation -- 1.3 Likelihood function -- II. Bayesian Inference: The Extended Natural-Conjugate Approach -- II.1 Two reformulations of the likelihood function -- II.2 The extended natural-conjugate prior density -- II.3 Posterior densities --...

Adaptive Polar Sampling (APS) is proposed as a Markov chain Monte Carlomethod for Bayesian analysis of models with ill-behaved posteriordistributions. In order to sample efficiently from such a distribution,a location-scale transformation and a transformation to polarcoordinates are used. After...

GARCH volatility models with fixed parameters are too restrictive for long time series due to breaks in the volatility process. Flexible alternatives are Markov-switching GARCH and change-point GARCH models. They require estimation by MCMC methods due to the path dependence problem. An unsolved...