We investigate intermediary asset pricing theories empirically and find strong support for models that have intermediary leverage as the relevant state variable. A parsimonious model that uses detrended dealer leverage as a price-of-risk variable, and innovations to dealer leverage as a pricing...

Real-time macroeconomic data reflect the information available to market participants, whereas final data's containing revisions and released with a delays' overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is...

The level of daily stock returns is generally regarded as unpredictable. Instead of the level, we focus on the signs of these returns and generate forecasts using various statistical classification techniques, such as logistic regression, generalized additive models, or neural networks. The...

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....

The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...