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We document extreme bias and dispersion in the small sample distributions of five standard regression tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. These biases derive from the extreme persistence in short interest rates. We derive approximate analytic expressions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005414696
We examine the empirical evidence on the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany using the Campbell-Shiller (1991) regressions and a vector-autoregressive methodology. We argue that anomalies in the U.S. term structure,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005414712
. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk and inflation to identify these …-cyclical (counter-cyclical) and inflation is negatively correlated with real rates. An inflation risk premium that increases with the … of nominal term spreads is due to expected inflation and inflation risk. …
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Corporate bond returns in the major developed economies increase with risk, as measured by maturity and ratings. From a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259354
Corporate bond returns in the major developed economies increase with risk, as measured by maturity and ratings. From a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422114
") and changes in risk aversion ("risk" for short) in the determination of the term structure, equity prices, and risk … asset market phenomena. While the variation in dividend yields and the equity risk premium is primarily driven by risk …
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