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Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034314

Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment : evidence for the euro area

Belke, Ansgar; Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Göcke, Matthias - 2019

Zinsen auf Unternehmenskredite in 5 Ländern der Eurozone für den Zeitraum 2001Q1 bis 2018Q1. In den meisten Ländern finden …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034406

QE in the euro area : has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?

Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel - 2019

The asset purchase program of the Euro area, active between 2015 and 2018, constitutes an interesting special case of Quantitative Easing (QE) because the ECB's (Public Sector Purchase Program) PSPP program involved the purchase of the bonds of peripheral Euro area governments, which were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012031124

(When) should a non-euro country join the banking union?

Belke, Ansgar; Dobrzańska, Anna; Gros, Daniel; Smaga, Pawel - 2016

We analyze the benefits and costs of a non-euro country opting-in to the banking union. The decision to opt-in depends on the comparison between the assessment of the banking union attractiveness and the robustness of a national safety net. The benefits of opting-in are still only potential and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011575977

Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond : a global VAR approach

Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2016

This paper identifies and measures fiscal spillovers in the EU countries empirically, using a structurally stable global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. For our purposes, the individual EU countries, as well as the most important international trading partners, are modelled with a special...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011581983

Business cycle synchronization in the EMU : core vs. periphery

Belke, Ansgar; Domnick, Clemens; Gros, Daniel - 2016

This paper examines business cycle synchronization in the European Monetary Union with a special focus on the core-periphery pattern in the aftermath of the crisis. Using a quarterly index for business cycle synchronization by Cerqueira (2013), our panel data estimates suggest that it is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011582248

International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach

Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017

prices, equity prices, and interest rates. Uncertainty shocks cause deeper recessions in Continental Europe (except Germany … Hinsicht vergleichen wir die Auswirkungen eines Unsicherheitsschocks in den USA und der Eurozone. Unseren Ergebnissen zufolge … Aktienkurse und die Zinssätze. Unsicherheitsschocks führen zu stärkeren Rezessionen in Kontinentaleuropa (mit Ausnahme Deutschland …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640939

State-of-play in implementing macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area

Gros, Daniel; Alcidi, Cinzia; Belke, Ansgar; Coutinho, … - 2014

Two of the four macroeconomic adjustment programmes, Portugal and Ireland’s, can be considered a success in the sense that the initial expectations in terms of adjustment, both fiscal and external, were broadly fulfilled. A rebound based on exports has taken hold in these two countries, but a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429261

Exports and capacity constraints : evidence for several euro area countries

Belke, Ansgar; Oeking, Anne; Setzer, Ralph - 2015

We argue that, under certain conditions, firms consider exports as a substitute for domestic demand. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests domestic demand and capacity constraints as additional variables for export equations. We apply the exponential and logistic variant of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300368

Exports and capacity constraints : a smooth transition regression model for six euro area countries

Belke, Ansgar; Oeking, Anne; Setzer, Ralph - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441079