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Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US : a SEIVAR-based analysis
Belke, Ansgar; Goemans, Pascal - 2019 - First draft: December 18, 2018, this draft: September 8, 2019
We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268062
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Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US : a SEIVAR-based analysis
Belke, Ansgar; Goemans, Pascal - 2019
We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012116248
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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks
Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina - 2016
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the last years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506456
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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks
Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina - 2016
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the last years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506905
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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks
Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina - 2017
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011631497
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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks
Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina - 2016
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. However, the downturn in large emerging markets turned out to be less persistent. Despite the modest recovery in advanced economies, GDP growth declined in emerging markets in the last years. The higher divergence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011581929
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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks
Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina - 2017
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110982
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International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach
Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017
shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect … the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691548
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International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach
Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017
shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect … the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110907
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International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach
Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017
shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect … the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640939