I propose a framework that takes a set of conceivable outcomes as the primitive and a prediction is defined by identifying a subset on the set of conceivable outcomes. This notion of predictability serves as an organizing principle for characterizing pattern of trade predictions in single...

I assess the empirical evidence on comparative advantage. I argue that the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (H-O-V) relationship is not a refutable general equilibrium proposition. Consequently, the empirical Heckscher-Ohlin literature has been suffering from the tyranny of nonrefutability. The trade...

When there are costs of trade, such as transport or other costs, the pattern of trade may not be well described by the usual measures of comparative advantage, which simply compare a country's costs or autarky prices to those of the world. Instead, a better comparison takes into account the...

The question here is whether the dynamic effects of opening to trade will increase or decrease comparative advantage. When comparative advantage is based on the abundance or scarcity of something that is costly to acquire, one expects rational behavior to respond to a change in prices by...

"This paper presents a model of international trade that features heterogeneous firms, relative endowment differences across countries, and consumer taste for variety. The paper demonstrates that firm reactions to trade liberalization generate endogenous Ricardian productivity responses at the...