Forecast users and market analysts need quality forecast information to improve their decision-making abilities. When more than one forecast is available, the analyst can improve forecast accuracy by using a composite forecast. One of several approaches to forming composite forecasts is a...

Economic theory is replete with causal hypotheses that are scarcely tested because economists are generally constrained to work with observational data. This article describes the use of causal inference methods for testing a hypothesis that one random variable causes another. Contingent on a...

To date, mixed demand systems have been all but ignored in empirical work. A possible reason for the scarcity of such applications is that one needs to know a priori which prices and quantities are endogenous in the mixed demand system. By using a directed acyclical graph (DAG), causal...

We describe a means of rejecting a null hypothesis concerning observed, but not deliberately manipulated, variables of the form H0: A -/- B in favor of an alternative hypothesis HA: A -- B, even given the possibility of causally related unobserved variables. Rejection of such an H0 relies on the...

Consumer demand analysis attracts considerable attention. It remains an open question, however, whether estimating demand with aggregate data is reliable when disaggregate store-level data is given. Demand models may produce biased results when applied to data aggregated across stores with...

Recent studies and reports suggest that foreign aid/intervention has been somewhat futile in eradicating conflict. In this study, we develop a simultaneous donor/recipient model of foreign aid and terrorism. Thereafter, we extend our theoretical propositions through a machine learning algorithm...

This study uses unrestricted vector autoregression method and historical decomposition with directed acyclic graphs to quantity the impacts of the foot and mouth disease outbreak on the Brazilian meat market for different levels of the industry (export, wholesale and farm). The imposition of an...

This article compiles several sources of drug data to provide an analysis of supply and demand factor influencing the drug trade, including potential effects to agricultural production. All effects were found to be contemporaneously independent with the exception of coca production causing...