Beutel, Johannes; List, Sophia; von Schweinitz, Gregor - 2018
crises using a sample of advanced economies covering the past 45 years. We compare a benchmark logit approach to several … very high in-sample fit, they are outperformed by the logit approach in recursive out-of-sample evaluations. This result is … crises. Conventional logit models appear to use the available information already fairly efficiently, and would for instance …