Exponential smoothing can introduce spurious auto-correlation in detrended data. The extent of this depends on the length of lag, the value of the smoothing parameter and the nature of the input process. The most widely-used version of exponential smoothing is the Hodrick-Prescott low-frequency...

This paper reviews the recent theoretical literature on collapsing exchange rate regimes. Using a combination of technique, intuition, and real-world observation, we discuss the literature's main insights, point out some unresolved questions and offer suggestions for future research. The survey...

We develop and apply a method of testing for speculative bubbles. The method is designed to overcome two well-known problems in the identification of bubble phenomena--the problem of distinguishing any type of bubble from an expected future change in market fundamentals and the problem of...