Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted … decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead … with a range of machine learning techniques. Models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not …

should help people reach and maintain bargains, minimizing violence. Can outside organizations engineer improvements and … violent land disputes are common. Prior work showed a fall in violence and unresolved disputes within one year. We return …