Research in both economics and psychology suggests that, when agents predict the next value of a random series, they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler's fallacy (GF) and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The gambler's fallacy is to expect a negative correlation in a...

We hypothesise that, given the typically uneven distribution of ethnic groups within acountry, ethnic diversity leads to greater local polarization and more frequent, butsmaller, conflicts that involve only some ethnic groups. These conflicts can beoverlooked if the number of fatalities is...

Can pegging reduce real as well as nominal, and multilateral as well as bilateralexchange rate volatility? We investigate this issue using monthly data for 139countries from January 1990 to June 2006...

Empirical evidence from the UK market is brought to bear on recent theories of closed-endfund discounts. Market pricing of skill, relative to the fees charged for it, accounts for asignificant portion of discount variation, but cannot explain the rarity of index funds orwhy they trade at a...

Real effective exchange rate volatility is examined for 90 countries using monthlydata from January 1990 to June 2006. Volatility decreases with openness tointernational trade and per capita GDP, and increases with inflation, particularlyunder a horizontal peg or band, and with terms-of-trade...

A poor country with volatile export prices borrows in international markets. When debtis denominated in foreign currency, there is a temptation to repudiate when export pricesare low...

This paper explores the relationship between the denomination ofpublic debt and the choice of exchange rate regime. Unlike indexeddomestic debt, foreign debt is subject to valuation e¤ects from realexchange rate shocks. In a standard set-up, where a peg functions onlyas a nominal anchor, more...