We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty … uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average …) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the …

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii …) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great … Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions. On the …

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii …) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great … Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions. On the …