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pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic … greatly-from an 80 percent rise (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 to a 20-fold rise in … forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose rapidly from late February and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251406
Many commentators argue that uncertainty about tax, spending, monetary and regulatory policy slowed the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession. To investigate this we develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), built on three components: the frequency of newspaper references to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064762
pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic … greatly-from an 80 percent rise (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 to a 20-fold rise in … forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose rapidly from late February and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389586
We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized … volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the … Macroeconomic Outlook, and 44 percent discuss Commodity Markets. Policy news is another major source of volatility: 35 percent of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889441
volatility, and negatively with GDP growth. In a panel vector autoregressive setting, we find that innovations in the WUI …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908757
The UK's decision to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum created substantial uncertainty for UK businesses. The nature of this uncertainty is different from that of a typical uncertainty shock because of its length, breadth and political complexity. Consequently, a new firm-level survey, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892721
stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective … January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 and subjective uncertainty around year-ahead sales for UK firms to … a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829721
stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective … January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 and subjective uncertainty around year-ahead sales for UK firms to … a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: Implied volatility rose …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095626
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010475525
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012204869