Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; … - 2021
We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one …,750 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major nonfarm industry, and a range of firm sizes. We find three key results. First …, firm-level growth expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates. Second, subjective uncertainty is highly …